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National Threat Initiative Predicted Monkeypox Outbreak To The Exact Date

In March 2021, the National Threat Initiative (NTI) partnered with the Munich Security Conference to conduct a tabletop exercise on reducing high-consequence biological threats. The report focused specifically on a Monkeypox outbreak.

The report was a partnership between The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Munich Security Conference. The Munich Security Conference has received funding of $1.2 mil from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

On Page 6 of the 36 page report in the Executive Summary it says:

“The exercise scenario portrayed a deadly, global pandemic involving an unusual strain of monkeypox virus that emerged in the fictional nation of Brinia and spread globally over 18 months. Ultimately, the exercise scenario revealed that the initial outbreak was caused by a terrorist attack using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity provisions and weak oversight. By the end of the exercise, the fictional pandemic resulted in more than three billion cases and 270 million fatalities worldwide”

Discussion among exercise participants led to the following key findings:

  • Weak global detection, assessment, and warning of pandemic risks

  • Gaps in national-level preparedness.

  • Gaps in biological research governance

  • Insufficient financing of international preparedness for pandemics.

To address these findings, the authors developed the following 5 recommendations.

  1. Bolster international systems for pandemic risk assessment, warning, and investigating outbreak origins

  2. Develop and institute national-level triggers for early, proactive pandemic response

  3. Establish an international entity dedicated to reducing emerging biological risks associated with rapid technology advances

  4. Develop a catalytic global health security fund to accelerate pandemic preparedness capacity building in countries around the world

  5. Establish a robust international process to tackle the challenge of supply chain resilience

What is especially interesting about these recommendations is the role the UN, WHO and Banks will have to play (all are mentioned in the report). This seems like a direct nod to the WHO Pandemic treaty which is being discussed at the World Health Assembly May 22-28.

Isn’t it interesting as well that the World Economic Forum 2022 meeting is also taking place from May 22-26.

I mentioned earlier the exercise participants in the tabletop exercise but who are they. It will come as no surprise that it was the usual runners and riders which coincidentally were involved in Event 201. Here are just a few from Page 9..

Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme

Dr. Ruxandra Draghia-Akli, Global Head, Johnson & Johnson Global Public Health R&D Janssen Research & Development

Dr. Chris Elias, President, Global Development Division Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sir Jeremy Farrar, Director Wellcome Trust

Most fascinating of all though was the predicted date from the document of the Monkeypox outbreak (Page 9). Funny how unerringly accurate they are with their predictions. Just a coincidence of course.

The report also speaks of future triggers. Page 17

“In national pandemic response plans, specific readiness measures would be “triggered” based on factors related to the potential severity of the outbreak, expected delays in situational awareness, and the time it would take to implement response measures and see results”

As was evident in Covid yet again they speak of flattening the curve, using mask mandates and ceasing mass gatherings as well as health screening measures for travel (vaccine passports).

“Although triggered actions would vary depending upon the particular needs of the country, in most cases the goals are the same: slow the spread of disease to buy time and flatten the epidemiological curve, while using that time to scale up public health and medical systems to keep up with growing caseloads and save lives. NPIs such as mask mandates and ceasing mass gatherings were deemed to be critical for blocking chains of disease transmission. Participants generally did not endorse travel restrictions such as border closures, but travel health screening measures were viewed as valuable”

One other coincidence I noticed in the document is the address of the Nuclear Threat Initiative in Washington. 1776 Eye Street. Wasn’t 1776 the date of the American Declaration Of Independence. The document is also 33 pages long but maybe that’s another coincidence and a discussion for another day. Make of it what you will.

If anybody thinks these pandemic tabletop exercises are a coincidence they need their head examined. This is far from over.


Full Report:

Download PDF • 1.78MB

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